Sunday, December 19, 2010

december oscar talk

With the Globes and the SAG Awards nominees announced, it's about time to make some revisions to the prediction round-up (in order of my confidence in their nomination likelihood).  Though very few adjustments were made from my November decisions in the Best Picture and lead categories, I decided to throw in a few wrenches in the supporting ones.  Share your thoughts!

Best Picture
The Social Network, The King's Speech, The Fighter, Black Swan,
Winter's Bone, 127 Hours, Toy Story 3, Inception
The Kids Are All Right, The Town

Best Lead Actress
Natalie Portman (Black Swan), Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right),
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole),
Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)

Best Lead Actor
Colin Firth (The King's Speech), James Franco (127 Hours),
Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network), Robert Duvall (Get Low),
Mark Wahlberg (The Fighter)

Best Supporting Actress
Melissa Leo (The Fighter), Amy Adams (The Fighter),
Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech), Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit),
Mila Kunis (Black Swan)

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale (The Fighter), Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech),
Bill Murray (Get Low), John Hawkes (Winter's Bone),
Jeremy Renner (The Town)


joe burns said...

What's The Town about?

And I think Jackie Weaver will get nominated, I'm not too sure about Kunis getting in, the role is more of a plot-device, not that she's not good. But we agree on Best Actress!

Simon said...


Though I quite like Mila Kunis.

John T said...


Picture-This does seem like the Top 10, doesn't it? I'm a little bit leerier of Winter's Bone (I'd personally say that The Town is roughly 5-6 in likelihood). Which do you think is the most likely to break the Top 10 if one falters? True Grit? Blue Valentine?

Actress-I've got to agree. Swank's got an outside shot and Manville technically does (if she was a little bit more famous, she'd be the surprise attack I'd be guessing), but this seems like a solid and realistic Top 5.

Best Actor-I also agree here. Wahlberg seems like the sort of nominee that has to get nominated because he's the lead in a Best Picture frontrunner. And I think personal goodwill will keep Duvall over Gosling. Plus, Bridges just won.

Best S. Actress-I've got to disagree here. I say Weaver gets in. I just don't see Steinfeldt getting in right now. It seems a little like Dakota Fanning in I Am Sam-a threat for the nomination, but not quite ready for the Kodak.

Best S. Actor-I think that Hawkes may be wishful thinking, and the complete lack of traction for Murray is troubling. I'd say that we see Rockwell grab the fourth slot and Garfield the fifth.