(4/6) Courtesy of my humble abilities as an Academy Award predictor, here is my gradual work on predicting 2011's Oscar potential. Coding all of this HTML junk is taking a substantial amount of time, so pulling together my first set of predictions will assuredly not all happen yet today. But please enjoy, for what it's worth! The lot is ranked in order of their likelihood of a nomination come January.
| BEST PICTURE | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
 |  |  |  |  |
The Tree of Life dir. Terrence Malick | War Horse dir. Steven Spielberg | Hugo Cabret dir. Martin Scorsese | The Ides of March dir. George Clooney | J. Edgar dir. Clint Eastwood |
May 27 Fox Searchlight | December 28 DreamWorks | November 23 Paramount | December Sony | TBA Warner Bros. |
6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
 |  |  |  |  |
Moneyball dir. Bennett Miller | Young Adult dir. Jason Reitman | The Descendants dir. Alexander Payne | The Eye of the Storm dir. Fred Schepisi | The Iron Lady dir. Phyllida Lord |
September 23 Columbia | TBA Paramount | December 16 Fox Searchlight | TBA N/A | TBA 20th Century Fox |
| Other Possibilities | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11. A Dangerous Method (dir. David Cronenberg) 12. Contagion (dir. Steven Soderbergh) 13. The Skin I Live In (dir. Pedro Almodovar) 14. We Bought a Zoo (dir. Cameron Crowe) 15. Carnage (dir. Roman Polanski) 16. One Day (dir. Lone Scherfig) 17. Albert Nobbs (dir. Rodrigo Garcia) 18. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (dir. David Fincher) 19. The Rum Diary (dir. Bruce Robinson) 20. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (dir. Tomas Alfredson) | ||||
(4/6) These first Best Actress predictions tend to be a shot in the dark. This is where the new young ingenues (Jennifer Lawrence, Gabourey Sidibe) jump in later in the game, and there's no way of knowing who that will be. I'm going for the less risky route by nixing Elizabeth Olsen from the five slots, but I feel she's hot on these previously nominated actresses' tails.
| BEST LEAD ACTRESS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
 |  |  |  |  |
Meryl Streep The Iron Lady | Glenn Close Albert Nobbs | Tilda Swinton We Need to Talk About Kevin | Charlize Theron Young Adult | Michelle Williams My Week with Marilyn |
16 nominations 2 wins | 5 nominations 0 wins | 1 nomination 1 win | 2 nominations 1 win | 2 nominations 0 wins |
6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
 |  |  |  |  |
Elizabeth Olsen Martha Marcy May Marlene | Elena Anaya The Skin I Live In | Adepero Oduye Pariah | Robin Wright The Conspirator | Jodie Foster Carnage |
Never nominated | Never nominated | Never nominated | Never nominated | 4 nominations 2 wins |
| Other Possibilities | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11. Anne Hathaway (One Day) - 1 nomination, 0 wins 12. Charlotte Rampling (The Eye of the Storm) - Never nominated 13. Anna Paquin (Margaret) - 1 nomination, 1 win 14. Abbie Cornish (W.E.) - Never nominated 15. Scarlett Johansson (We Bought a Zoo) - Never nominated 16. Rachel Weisz (The Whistleblower) - 1 nomination, 1 win 17. Juliette Binoche (Certified Copy) - 2 nominations, 1 win 18. Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) - Never nominated 19. Kate Winslet (Contagion) - 6 nominations, 1 win 20. Mia Wasikowska (Jane Eyre) - Never nominated | ||||
(4/6) Luckily, it's much easier to predict what Oscar will like in the Lead Actor category, as it generally subscribes to the "old boys' club" mentality. The first few choices were no-brainers to me, assuming they'll manage 2011 release dates, but I threw in some wild cards for the fun of it. Also, the nomination tallies are only for the acting nods, hence the low counts for Branagh and Gibson.
| BEST LEAD ACTOR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
 |  |  |  |  |
Leonardo DiCaprio J. Edgar | Brad Pitt Moneyball | George Clooney The Descendants | Antonio Banderas The Skin I Live In | Kenneth Branagh My Week with Marilyn |
3 nominations 0 wins | 2 nominations 0 wins | 3 nominations 1 win | Never nominated | 1 nomination 0 wins |
6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
 |  |  |  |  |
Ryan Gosling The Ides of March | Michael Fassbender A Dangerous Method | Johnny Depp The Rum Diary | Asa Butterfield Hugo Cabret | Geoffrey Rush The Eye of the Storm |
1 nomination 0 wins | Never nominated | 3 nominations 0 wins | Never nominated | 4 nominations 1 win |
| Other Possibilities | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11. Sean Penn (This Must Be the Place) - 5 nominations, 2 wins 12. John C. Reilly (Carnage) - 1 nomination, 0 wins 13. Matt Damon (We Bought a Zoo) - 2 nominations, 0 wins 14. Woody Harrelson (Rampart) - 2 nominations, 0 wins 15. Mel Gibson (The Beaver) - Never nominated 16. Ralph Fiennes (Coriolanus) - 2 nominations, 0 wins 17. Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy) - Never nominated 18. Ewan McGregor (Salmon Fishing in the Yemen) - Never nominated 19. Tom Hanks (Larry Crowne) - 5 nominations, 2 wins 20. Jeremy Irvine (War Horse) - Never nominated | ||||
